Time to plead for exceptions?

11 Feb 2025 2 min read

Daily update

US President Trump stated there will be no exceptions to aggressively taxing US buyers of foreign metals (due to start on 4 March, giving time for US companies to plead for exceptions). If there is no retreat, this will reduce US steel consumers鈥� competitiveness via higher import and domestic costs (if domestic metal producers raise prices under cover of the tariff). Retail consumers are less likely to notice the tax, unless job losses are explicitly linked to it.
The US January NFIB small business sentiment survey surveys a sample of NFIB members. There may be selection bias as NFIB members might, possibly, skew strongly Republican. That might hint at Republican business owners鈥� views of various proposed trade tax increases (and the realization that they, not foreigners, would pay).
After the UK budget a narrative was constructed about businesses reeling from higher employment taxes, and consumers cowering at home. It does not seem to be borne out by the data. The January BRC same store sales value showed strength in consumer spending. We hear from Bank of England Governor Bailey and hawk-turned-dove Mann today.
French fourth quarter unemployment fell (against expectations of a rise). This is not market moving, but it is a mildly optimistic challenge to a pessimistic market mindset.