Laboring a point

Weekly Updates

At the end of last year, the UK’s Chief Statistician informed Parliamentarians that surveys (public and private) could not be relied upon, and admitted the UK Labour Force Survey would not be ready until 2027. This is not a uniquely British problem—although, perhaps, UK authorities are uniquely honest about the challenges. The US Current Employment Survey, which generates the nonfarm payrolls data, has a response rate of 43%.
People are overloaded with online survey requests, and the resulting survey fatigue reduces response rates. Avoiding unsolicited telephone calls and a growing desire to keep personal data private also make data unreliable.
In addition, people work in ways that they might not consider employment. The Airbnb host is doing a job and earning an income, but is this “employment”? The pandemic-era explosion of “side-hustles” created income streams, but not conventionally defined “jobs,” resulting in blind spots in labor data.
Thus, there is no precision to labor market data. That lack of precision infects estimates of productivity and growth, as well as fiscal projections and infrastructure needs. Economic models built on relationships that used more precise data are less reliable as the data are less reliable. Policy error risks increase (especially for those central banks that have deified “data dependency”).