“End the Fed”?
Daily update
Daily update
- Overnight US President Trump’s influential donor Musk reiterated a desire to “end the Fed.” Abolishing the Federal Reserve is part of the reported Project 2025 blueprint. This sort of talk, immediately ahead of significant trade taxes, is potentially disruptive. A central bank is probably necessary for reserve currency status.
- Markets are assessing trade tax risks. This weekend Trump threatened “secondary tariffs” against Russia (taxing US consumers buying from countries that buy oil from Russia). This reiterated Trump’s willingness to tax US consumers in pursuit of diverse policy objectives. While trade with the US is important to many economies, it is not the most important part of economic activity for any economy.
- The Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment survey is of little use directly, but the comments section has some value. It matters if economic realities are penetrating partisan media bubbles. Last week’s Michigan consumer sentiment suggested this was not happening—the comments section of the Dallas survey offers some insight into partisan business thinking.
- German February retail sales were stronger than expected, and January data was revised stronger (eleven of the last twelve releases were revised stronger). German and Italian March consumer price inflation is due, after benign French and Spanish data.
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- ….not well
- ±….
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- Insecurity
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- Animal spirits measurement
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- Changing the growth narrative
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- Regional variations
- The rising price of drowning sorrows
- Cutting confidence more than spending
- Powell is not a chicken farmer
- When economics takes over
- Deflation and inflation
- Tax and retreat
- Taxes, spending, and rate cuts
- A disturbance in the force
- Tax attacks
- Taxes and data tampering
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- Markets start to fret
- US President Trump’s confusion
- Panem or Panglossian?
- Is an avocado tax credible?
- Breaking with the past
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- The risk of fantastic savings
- Nervousness about policy
- More taxes ahead
- Hiring and firing
- Keeping trade in the spotlight
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- Protectionist, or pushover?
- The damage of data dependency
- The wider politics of price rises
- Time to plead for exceptions?
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- The fear of fear
- Revising history
- Right person, right job, right time
- Trivialities and perceptions
- Retreat repeat
- The Phantom Menace?
- Another fun year
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- Policy and policy uncertainty
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- Tariff tales
- Setting rates
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- Threats and freezes
- Scripted versus unscripted
- Competitiveness considerations
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- Trade taxes and the US Treasury
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- Shell shocked?
- Trade taxes and boiling frogs
- Buy before prices rise
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- Dullness, and bias
- Ninety one days
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- Guardrails
- Taxes or tips?
- Laboring a point
- Here we go again
- A year of upsetting everyone
- Solid foundations, political threats
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- The end of the rate cut scramble
- Political noise, again
- Shuffling demand around
- Can food prices fall?
- Supporting consumers
- Real talk
- Taxing US consumers, cutting China’s taxes
- Taxing via tariffs
- The other side of the coin
- Employment without consensus
- Barnier falls
- Rule of law
- Après moi, le déluge?
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- Supply and demand, and inflation
- Budgets and bonds
- The good life
- Rate cuts and tax hikes
- Orthodoxy does not have influence