Rate cuts and tax hikes

Daily update

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.
US trade representative nominee Greer has supported higher US consumer taxes, but his power in the incoming administration is unclear. US President-elect Trump’s trade tax plans provoked warnings of higher US gasoline prices. The auto sector has also highlighted how often cars cross the Mexico-US border during the manufacturing process. US tech companies are reportedly trying to stockpile components, knowing that they will be liable for any new taxes.
With the US taking tomorrow off to prepare for the Black Friday consumption festival, there is a data dump today. Revised third quarter GDP is unlikely to move markets. October consumer spending and price data are important—inflation-adjusted spending has risen consistently since the end of the pandemic, with the recent focus skewed to services.
German consumer confidence is unlikely to be an investor focus. ECB Chief Economist Lane is speaking—while any words from a chief economist must be heard with reverential attention, we have been hearing from the ECB an awful lot lately.