Daily update
Daily update
- Government by social media—US President-elect Trump pledged to hit US consumers with aggressive consumption tax hikes immediately on taking office. A 25% tax for consumers of Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tax on consumers of goods from China is proposed.
- These taxes may be bargaining tools (they are linked to drug trafficking and immigration). That could mean they are a short-lived gesture. However, there is little time to stockpile goods. The taxes apply at point of import, so an additional 10% tax on goods from China implies consumers pay 4% more (on average) for those goods in stores. Areas like the auto sector, which has highly integrated supply chains across the Mexico-US and Canada-US borders, are very vulnerable.
- The US conference board consumer confidence data is due, and will be distorted by partisan bias. Because Republicans tend to be more emotional than Democrats in survey responses, the net effect of Republican euphoria and Democrat despondency should be higher sentiment.
- The UK BRC shop price measure showed continued deflation in November, as expected. There are seven ECB speaking events today (why?), after four yesterday and over thirty last week. The minutes of the November Federal Reserve meeting are also scheduled.
Explore more CIO Daily Updates
- How quickly will US inflation increase?
- ….not well
- ….not well
- ….not well
- ±….
- Economists’ ignorance is the problem
- United fronts
- “End the Fed”?
- US inflation pain a global gain?
- State controlled prices
- Tax facts
- Who believes the numbers?
- Insecurity
- Fiscal inefficiency
- Animal spirits measurement
- Tariffs start to show up
- Sort of stagflation?
- US rates – who decides?
- Changing the growth narrative
- A tale of two consumers
- Regional variations
- The rising price of drowning sorrows
- Cutting confidence more than spending
- Powell is not a chicken farmer
- When economics takes over
- Deflation and inflation
- Tax and retreat
- Taxes, spending, and rate cuts
- A disturbance in the force
- Tax attacks
- Taxes and data tampering
- Durable inflation?
- Markets start to fret
- US President Trump’s confusion
- Panem or Panglossian?
- Is an avocado tax credible?
- Breaking with the past
- Time to invest in the US?
- The risk of fantastic savings
- Nervousness about policy
- More taxes ahead
- Hiring and firing
- Keeping trade in the spotlight
- What US retreats tell us
- Protectionist, or pushover?
- The damage of data dependency
- The wider politics of price rises
- Time to plead for exceptions?
- What tariff retreats teach us
- The fear of fear
- Revising history
- Right person, right job, right time
- Trivialities and perceptions
- Retreat repeat
- The Phantom Menace?
- Another fun year
- Time for more taxes
- Policy and policy uncertainty
- Rates and spending
- Efficiency versus GDP
- Reassuring signals?
- Tariff tales
- Setting rates
- Tariffs may not “solve” everything
- Threats and freezes
- Scripted versus unscripted
- Competitiveness considerations
- Will dollar strength magic away tariffs?
- Trade taxes and the US Treasury
- Benign inflation; now, what about growth?
- Shell shocked?
- Trade taxes and boiling frogs
- Buy before prices rise
- Does deregulation always boost growth?
- Dullness, and bias
- Ninety one days
- US rates paths
- Guardrails
- Taxes or tips?
- Laboring a point
- Here we go again
- A year of upsetting everyone
- Solid foundations, political threats
- Rates: Same story, different risks
- The end of the rate cut scramble
- Political noise, again
- Shuffling demand around
- Can food prices fall?
- Supporting consumers
- Real talk
- Taxing US consumers, cutting China’s taxes
- Taxing via tariffs
- The other side of the coin
- Employment without consensus
- Barnier falls
- Rule of law
- Après moi, le déluge?
- The importance of being the dollar
- Supply and demand, and inflation
- Budgets and bonds