Budgets and bonds

Daily update

The French budget and bond yields are attracting attention, with the media ever eager to spot another Truss debacle. This weekend will (presumably) see some fevered politicking in Paris as politicians try to come up with a budget that will not scare markets, but will also not lead to a collapse of the government. France’s deficit is not sustainable, but the government is not actively seeking to make it dramatically worse; so Truss analogies are probably inappropriate for now.
Japan’s Tokyo consumer price inflation was pushed higher by food and fuel costs, but underlying inflation was broadly static. Retail sales and industrial production were both weaker than expected; so domestic demand may not be a key driver of higher core inflation.
Eurozone flash November consumer price inflation is expected to be basically static. German numbers were weaker than expected yesterday, although inflation perceptions may not match that (relevant ahead of elections expected next year). The ECB’s consumer inflation survey will reflect expectations about high frequency prices.
UK consumer credit data is due, but UK consumers’ spending has not really been built on the back of credit. Real household income has continued to grow quite strongly in the UK, reducing the need for credit to finance consumption.