Hiring and firing

18 Feb 2025 2 min read

Daily update

UK labor market data was stronger than forecast, with some positive revisions to previous month鈥檚 data. Anguished corporate cries about tax increases and related projections of mass unemployment do not (so far) appear in any of the data. Employment growth seems especially strong amongst the middle-aged, who matter because they have an important degree of spending power.
The German ZEW survey of economic forecasters is due. In the US, the NY Empire State survey is at risk of polarized political views. The world according to Fox differs markedly from the world according to CNN.
Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking, and there is enough uncertainty about UK policy to make the remarks interesting. The Federal Reserve鈥檚 Barr and Daly speak, but there is so much uncertainty in the US as to lessen the interest in their comments (when a social media post can upend economic projections).
A television interview with US President Trump and Trump megadonor Musk is scheduled tonight. Investors will be interested in the balance of power. Federal government job cuts have attracted attention. Non-post office civilian federal employees are less than 1.5% of the US workforce, limiting the direct economic impact. There may be damage to supply chains, impacting private sector businesses.