Employment without consensus

Daily update

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends in employment, US President-elect Trump is proposing policies that might mark a structural break in employment conditions (most obviously deportations and tariffs).
US House Speaker Johnson is supporting billionaire Musk in reducing government efficiency. Johnson wants to force the US to hold unnecessary real estate assets, incur avoidable running costs and equipment expenses, and reduce productivity, by having workers in offices. The perception-reality gap around the efficiency of flexible working is a risk to productivity gains.
Japan’s October household spending was sluggish, though warmer weather may have slowed winter-related spending. Unusually amongst developed economies, real incomes are likely to weaken in the months ahead as inflation stays higher.
French President Macron has vowed not to quit—no one thought that they would go, so there is no market reaction. German industrial production was weaker, with positive revisions to the previous month.