蜜豆视频

Podcast:Jump start - US economic momentum, rate cuts & gold (4:03)
Podcast:Our Chief Economist's read on the latest Trump tariffs, inflation & rates (19:40)
Video: CIO's David Lefkowitz on why he sees US stocks rallying higher (6:38)
Video:蜜豆视频 Explains: What investors need to know about US tariff policy (9:45)

US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to start talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine as US President Donald Trump pushes for a quick resolution. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country was not invited, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine and Europe would be part of any 鈥渞eal negotiations鈥� to end the war that has lasted for nearly three years.

Markets moved to reflect some optimism that hostilities could end following Trump鈥檚 separate calls with Zelenskiy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin last week, with the euro strengthening and oil coming under pressure. The latest development came as more hostages and prisoners were freed over the weekend under the six-week Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, which narrowly avoided a threatened halt.

But geopolitical risks remain elevated, and uncertainty is likely to dominate market narratives in the near term.

The path to a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine is challenging. The Trump administration reportedly told European officials that it wants to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine by Easter, but we don鈥檛 expect a quick agreement to be reached given the lack of trust and large gap between desired outcomes. Ukraine may resist ceding occupied territory to Russia, while an end to sanctions on Russia could face pushback. We think tangible steps toward a framework of negotiations and signs that involved parties are willing to make concessions in the near term could boost sentiment, but less favorable scenarios are still possible. The durability of any ceasefire will also be key.

The temporary truce between Israel and Hamas comes to an end in two weeks鈥� time. The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal came close to an abrupt end last week after Hamas said it was postponing hostage releases and Israel threatened to resume intense fighting 鈥渦ntil the final defeat of Hamas.鈥� While hostages and prisoners were released over the weekend, the future of the conflict remains uncertain as the initial stage of the agreement is set to end at the end of this month and details of the second phase are yet to be negotiated. Trump鈥檚 earlier remarks on 鈥渢aking over鈥� the Gaza Strip and Rubio鈥檚 endorsement of Israel鈥檚 war aims in the region on Sunday further complicates the tensions in the Middle East.

US trade policies are likely to trigger further volatility. Trump鈥檚 tariff plans have continued to dominate headlines and add another layer of complexity to geopolitical uncertainties. Last week, Trump tasked the US Trade Representative and Commerce Department with quickly developing proposals for country-specific import taxes, after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25% 鈥渨ithout exceptions or exemptions.鈥� While no immediate reciprocal tariffs were imposed and the steel and aluminum levies do not become effective until 4 March, the uncertainty in global trade is unlikely to abate in the near term as countries race to cut deals with the White House.

So, while we think a ceasefire in Ukraine could be reached this year and Trump鈥檚 tariffs should be targeted measures instead of blanket taxes, we continue to emphasize the importance of portfolio diversification and adequate hedging. Capital preservation strategies can help manage downside risks in equities, while high grade and investment grade bonds can act as a portfolio stabilizer. We also view gold as an effective hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks.