What’s ahead for the Chinese yuan (CNY)
Rolling regression analysis tells us the CNY regime may have shifted
Key takeaways
Key takeaways
- From 1994 to 2014, the Chinese yuan (CNY) was firmly under Chinese policymakers’ control and its behavior was relatively predictable for more than two decades. Since then, however, we have observed several double-digit, and surprising, moves up and down in the US dollar to CNY exchange rate (USD/CNY) in 2017-2018, 2018-2020, and 2020-2021.
- This article attempts to describe the past regimes in CNY, what the brand new CNY regime looks like, and what will happen to USD/CNY in the next couple of months and years. In short, we expect USD/CNY to be within 7 to 7.2 to the dollar range in a few months and values above 8 are not unthinkable in 2023 or 2024.
Related insights
- Webinar with Bin Shi – From pessimism to prosperity
- Reasons for a standalone India allocation in a global portfolio
- Emerging market debt reflections following IMF-World Bank meetings
- Portfolio diversification with Sukuk
- Investing in India’s ambition
- Dollar and debt dominate IMF-World Bank discussions
- The case for emerging markets
- Double take on China: FDI
- Mirror image: Will this year prove to be the opposite of 2023 for China equities?
- Unlocking the potential of QFII and RQFII: A guide for investors in China
Contact us
Make an inquiry
Fill in an inquiry form and leave your details – we’ll be back in touch.
Whether you have a question or a request, we will be happy to get in touch with you. Contact our ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ Asset Management team for more details.
Introducing our leadership team
Meet the members of the team responsible for ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ Asset Management’s strategic direction.
