China fixed income – investing in a new world
China's fixed income markets are integrating with the global economy and opening up a new world for global bond investors.
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China's fixed income markets are integrating with the global economy and opening up a new world for global bond investors.
In this new report, we examine the investment case for China fixed income and show what an allocation to China bonds can do for global investors' portfolios.
China fixed income – investing in a new world: key takeaways
Fixed income investors are entering a new world.
And it’s a world of negative yields. Central banks' quantitative easing has driven a 36% average y-o-y increase in negative yielding debt over the past five years to reach USD 11 trillion at the end of March 2020.
Market cap of positive and negative yielding debt on global markets (USD billions), Feb 2012-Feb 2020
This new world is considerably more volatile - and correlated - than before. Global economic uncertainty has pushed annualized volatility of some developed country bonds to double-digit levels.
Global Bond Aggregates 1 yr rolling weekly volatility, Apr 2016-Apr 2020
And investors are in a new world where China is much more influential. China's steady integration into the global financial system is opening new territory to bond investors.
Given the challenges of negative yields and rising volatility, there's a strong investment case for China onshore fixed income - particularly in the government and policy bank sectors - because of the following five key factors:
But for all of China's progress, challenges still remain. Investors need to navigate the nuances of China's corporate structures, linkages to the state and liquidity in credit markets. As the credit markets will evolve rapidly we caution new investors to seek out solutions that offer interest rate sensitivity and take advantage of the defensive characteristics that are in short supply globally today.
Challenges like this reinforce the value proposition of local expertise and deep networks across China's financial markets. We believe that an established China presence can help cut through the noise surrounding China and position investors for the best opportunities.
And that's going to be valuable going forward. Yes, the current investment case is strong, but three megatrends described here - the rise of the RMB as a reserve currency, demographic change and the growth of China's pension industry, and China's rising status as one of the world's largest economies - will make positioning in China an essential part of global asset allocation strategy in the future.