What¡¯s ahead for the Chinese yuan (CNY)
Rolling regression analysis tells us the CNY regime may have shifted
Key takeaways
Key takeaways
- From 1994 to 2014, the Chinese yuan (CNY) was firmly under Chinese policymakers¡¯ control and its behavior was relatively predictable for more than two decades. Since then, however, we have observed several double-digit, and surprising, moves up and down in the US dollar to CNY exchange rate (USD/CNY) in 2017-2018, 2018-2020, and 2020-2021.
- This article attempts to describe the past regimes in CNY, what the brand new CNY regime looks like, and what will happen to USD/CNY in the next couple of months and years. In short, we expect USD/CNY to be within 7 to 7.2 to the dollar range in a few months and values above 8 are not unthinkable in 2023 or 2024.
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