蜜豆视频

Gold recently surpassed USD 3,000/oz, driven by strong demand following a record high in 2024. European exchangetraded fund holdings have reached a record 1,334 tons since early 2025, according to the World Gold Council. With central banks diversifying reserve assets, we estimate sustained demand above the past decade's average. Investment demand should remain strong amid trade-related headlines and geopolitical uncertainties.

Gold is also supported by lower real interest rates, rising government debt concerns, and strong jewelry demand. Although the market appears technically overbought, we view gold as a potential hedge against uncertainty and a portfolio diversifier. Holding around 5% in a USD balanced portfolio can help diversify against geopolitical and inflation risks. Underallocated聽investors concerned about these risks might consider structured strategies to accumulate positions on dips, with price support at USD 2,850/oz. Volatility-selling strategies for income may offer value, with implied volatility against the US dollar in the 82nd percentile over a one-year history.

Silver often trades like a growth-sensitive version of gold. While it does not benefit directly from central bank purchases, it gains from lower Fed rate expectations, reduced real US yields, and signs of stronger global industrial production. Demand in photovoltaic installations is reaching new highs, and silver's use in electrification applications is growing. We see greater potential price gains for silver over gold, expecting prices to reach USD 36-38/oz by year-end. We see outright buying opportunities in silver over gold at current levels, though these positions carry added risks. Implied volatility levels also offer interesting income generation opportunities by selling the risk of silver falling below current spot levels.

Recent oil market developments show a discrepancy between reported inventory data and actual conditions, with the International Energy Agency indicating a surplus while visible inventories suggest potential undersupply. The oil futures curve remains in backwardation, signaling expectations of tighter future supply and supporting the view of an undersupplied market. We maintain expectations of a balanced to slightly undersupplied market in early 2025, with US tariff news likely keeping oil prices volatile. We forecast oil prices at USD 80/bbl by year-end and rate the asset as Attractive.

Elsewhere, investors can consider capital preservation strategies, combining a zerocoupon bond with a call option to limit losses while maintaining exposure to potential gains. Higher interest rates make the bond component cheaper, but rising volatility may increase call option costs. As volatility could rise amid trade tensions, budget negotiations, and growth concerns, investors should be aware of these higher costs. To mitigate them, investors might opt for longer-duration options or enter positions during lower volatility periods to secure lower costs.