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Citizens of the world鈥檚 largest economies report increasing levels of concern about the risks of reaching climate-change tipping points that would result in potentially irreversible damage to the Earth鈥檚 ability to sustain humans, reported Johan Rockstr枚m, Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Looking at the public鈥檚 concerns from the perspective of corporations and financial institutions, he said that have 鈥渁s never before seen such support for redirecting investments towards鈥� reducing climate risks.

A global survey of the 20 largest economies showed that more than 70% of the citizen respondents strongly agreed or tended to agree with the statement: 鈥淏ecause of human activities, Earth is close to 鈥榯ipping points鈥� in nature where climate or nature may change suddenly or may be more difficult to stabilize.鈥� That reflects a surprisingly high level of public recognition of climate risks, Rockstr枚m said.

Fueling the public鈥檚 sense of increasing risk are extreme weather events. He noted that US and Gulf of Mexico were buffeted by 30 hurricanes last year, the largest number ever recorded and of higher intensity level than previously seen. Other events include the extreme heat seen in US Northwest and Canada this this summer, and flooding in western Europe in July. The once-in-2,000-years heat dome that sat over the Northwest US and western Canada resulted in 570 deaths in British Columbia alone.

While it can鈥檛 be ruled out that these were freak events, Rockstr枚m said science can explain them as linked with the changes in the global climate. The accelerated warming of the Arctic is interacting with the dynamics of the polar jetstream, he noted. The result is a meandering jetstream that 鈥渓ocks in鈥� low- and high-pressure systems, leading to events that can be regarded as 鈥渟uper extreme鈥� weather.

Science has been exploring examples of how very small increase in global mean temperature may be connected to extreme events but also can lead to 鈥渢ipping鈥� with domino effects. Rockstr枚m reviewed recent UN reports and other research that provides data on the dimensions of the challenge.

He noted that the UN report issued in August showed the Earth is heading toward a 2.7-degree Celsius increase in mean global temperature by the end of this century. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a place we have not been for the past 5 million years,鈥� Rockstr枚m noted. The Paris Agreement target aims to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

To achieve that objective, the global curve of emissions needed to start bending no later than last year, and the world economy would have to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Current modeling indicates that path would result in a 66% chance of being able to hold the 1.5-degree line, he said.

The latest reports indicate a strengthening level of confidence in such estimates, Rockstr枚m said. Recent research has significantly increased the level of scientific confidence when it comes to attribution of extreme events, when it comes to risks of long-term irreversible commitments, and even in terms of risk in undermining the stability of the earth鈥檚 climate regulation systems in the ocean and on land.

These changes have increased the risks associated with infectious diseases, natural resource depletion, biodiversity loss, crop failure and extreme weather risks. These are all risks that pose significant challenges for the world economy and financial systems. Rockstr枚m noted that financial institutions and the capital markets will play a critical role in channeling massive resources into the new investment needed to meet climate goals set by governments, institutions and corporations.