We are constructive on global food delivery.

Our deep-dive into 14 leading delivery markets points to >20% CAGR for the industry over the five years to 2024e. This is rooted in

  1. growing online penetration,
  2. greater order frequency driven by cultural shifts, and
  3. rising order values.

Comprehensive ÃÛ¶¹ÊÓƵ Evidence Lab data provides unique insights into the key drivers: consumer behaviour (3 datasets), brand attributes (3), demand (4) and supply (7). Data analysis shows that restaurant inventory has aÌýstronger relation with revenue growth than app downloads or search trends.

Unit economics analysis and evidence points to logistics profitability inflection

The profitability of the marketplace is well understood, but evidence from operators
supports our view that logistics profitability is at an inflection point. Our unit economicsÌýanalysis suggests logistics can be profitable in several markets, but higher costs andÌýpotential regulation are challenges in Europe. Hybrid models can achieve LT EBITDAÌýmargins of 20-40% (5-7% of GMV). Logistics helps access greater wallet share inÌýadjacent categories like grocery ($7.6trn), while denser networks drive better margins.

Investments will likely cloud path to profitability; consolidation a key driver

Clear market share structures are emerging organically or through consolidation,Ìýleading us to expect a steady decline in marketing investment. But the UK and the USÌýcould be tough in 2021. Investments in grocery and newer regionsÌýcloud the near-term profit picture for some. With the emergence ofÌýfour major groups ex China we see global consolidation asÌýphase 3 after in-market (phase 1) and cross-border (phase 2) efforts.