Highlights

  • We expect headline inflation to start trending lower in 2022 but we expect it to remain long-lasting.
  • Markets are repricing in anticipation of higher costs of capital, with January’s massive selloff in ‘unprofitable tech’ a clear example.
  • 2021 was challenging and generated wide dispersion across strategies and managers.
  • Overall, market risk looks increasingly asymmetric to the downside, with full valuations and tight spreads which could be increasingly vulnerable to surprises.

In the US, we see rising wages from labor shortages as the primary driver. Additional factors are housing costs, reworking supply chains to add resilience and the pending energy transition as well as putting a cost on carbon. Although growth is still strong, what’s changed more recently is that consumer sentiment is being dented by inflation. Similarly, negative real yields have investors nervous. The Fed is now on record to tighten financial conditions to fight inflation and is expected to begin hiking in March. Markets are repricing in anticipation of higher costs of capital, with January’s massive selloff in ‘unprofitable tech’ a clear example. We expect choppy markets ahead and inevitably a few bounces along the way. But overall, our view is the landscape will migrate from holding long risk assets and beta to contending with sideways markets. We are entering a period where hedge funds can add incremental value for our clients.

Actually, we expected to be here already one year ago, but 2021 was challenging and generated wide dispersion across strategies and managers. While Commodities, Credit / Income, and Co-investments were broadly successful, Equity Hedged was frustrating on the short side and in sectors like tech / biotech. Some discretionary Trading managers had missteps in reflationary curve steepening trades. We look forward to a market environment in 2022 with higher expected volatility and more focus on fundamentals. This should set up well for hedge funds.

Portfolio positioning

Our strategy outlook is similar to recent quarters, favoring Commodities, Equity Hedged and Fixed Income Relative Value

  • In Trading, we continue to favor Commodities over developed and emerging market macro. The energy transition story drives demand across a wide spectrum of commodities used in the renewables buildout, while the supply side is constrained by a decade of underinvestment.
  • We remain bullish on Equity Hedged, with a value tilt when possible. In recent months, the short side of portfolios are performing better and this should continue as the market adjusts to a hiking cycle and we see differentiated earnings amid inflation and wage pressures. Having a strong factor awareness will be critical to capture the long / short spread.
  • We are also adding to Fixed Income Relative Value (FIRV) due to improved volatility in the bond markets and wider spreads.
We look forward to a market environment in 2022 with higher expected volatility and more focus on fundamentals. This should set up well for hedge funds.

CIO model portfolio and sub-strategy outlook

Equity Hedged

Sub-strategy

Sub-strategy

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Sub-strategy

Fundamental

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

21

Sub-strategy

Equity Event

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

8 +

Sub-strategy

Opportunistic Trading

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

10

Sub-strategy

Equity Hedged Total

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

39

Credit/Income

Sub-strategy

Sub-strategy

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Sub-strategy

Distressed

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

1

Sub-strategy

Corporate Long/Short

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

8

Sub-strategy

Asset Backed Securities

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

5

Sub-strategy

Reinsurance / ILS

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

1

Sub-strategy

CLO/Corporate Lending

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

-

Sub-strategy

Other Income

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

1

Sub-strategy

Credit/Income total

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

16

Relative Value

Sub-strategy

Sub-strategy

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Sub-strategy

Merger Arbitrage

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

1 -

Sub-strategy

Capital Structure/Volatility Arb

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

4 -

Sub-strategy

Quantitative Equity

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

4

Sub-strategy

Fixed Income Relative Value

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

8 +

Sub-strategy

Agency MBS

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

3

Sub-strategy

Relative Value total

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

20

Trading

Sub-strategy

Sub-strategy

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

Sub-strategy

Systematic

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

1

Sub-strategy

Discretionary

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

14 -

Sub-strategy

Commodities

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

10 +

Sub-strategy

Trading total

Q1 2022
Forward looking target weight %

25

Equity Event +

  • Compared to the US, we see attractive opportunities in European event, where the regulatory environment and financial conditions may remain more accommodative
  • We continue to hold a constructive view on Japan-focused activism /subjectivism
  • Aside from traditional mergers, corporate divestitures as well as sponsor-led LBO and take-private activity remains plentiful

Fixed Income Relative Value +

  • Increased rates volatility, higher inflation and monetary policy normalization globally are benefitting FIRV
  • A broad range of sub-strategies are in play including Agency MBS, inflation relative value, front-end STIR (short term interest rate) trading, yield curve trading and swap spread trading

Relative Value -

  • Aside from FIRV, we have now scaled back most other sub-strategies within RV, but are watching for potential improvements
  • For Merger Arb in the US we are monitoring anti-competitive scrutiny, which has elevated risk levels and extended durations of large, complex deals
  • We also note the severe equity market rotation, which could bring a more credit-driven opportunity set within Capital Structure / Volatility Arbitrage

Discretionary -

  • HFS has a neutral outlook on Discretionary Trading and we plan to slightly decrease our DM macro allocations in favor of Commodities
  • Trims have already been made to our EM macro exposures

Commodities +

  • Given our views on inflation, Commodities remain our highest conviction strategy
  • At the current price levels, a product of both high demand and supply issues from underinvestment, we expect two-way volatility that can favor relative value approaches

Strategies

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